Analyst Arthur Liao forecasts that global smartphone shipments will continue to decline in 2026, dropping to 1.2 billion units, a 4% year-over-year decrease. In China, shipments are projected at 275 million units, down 3% YoY. iPhone shipments are expected to decline to 234 million units, representing a 4% decrease.
The report highlights rising component costs as a significant headwind for the industry in 2026. For example, DRAM contract prices have already surged more than 75% compared to Q4 2024, pushing overall smartphone bill-of-materials (BOM) costs up by an estimated 5–7% next year.
Against this backdrop, Apple’s first foldable iPhone is seen as a critical catalyst for the industry. Due to the high cost of panels, hinges, and lightweight materials, Fubon Research believes pricing will land at the upper end of market expectations. Based on supply-chain checks and Apple’s profit structure, the firm predicts a launch price of approximately US$2,399 (RMB 17,037 at current exchange rates).
For context:
- Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo previously estimated the iPhone Fold would be priced between US$2,000 and US$2,500.
- Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman projected a price of around US$2,000 (approximately RMB 14,204).
Demand will heavily hinge on the final price, but Fubon remains optimistic about sales potential. Assuming a conservative 7% penetration rate among iPhone buyers, the foldable iPhone is projected to ship 15.4 million units over its lifecycle, with approximately 5.4 million units expected to be shipped in 2026 alone.
Additionally, Fubon expects the iPhone 18 series in 2026 to introduce a variable-aperture lens. Due to its technical complexity, this component is likely to be supplied exclusively by Largan Precision.
Overall, despite widespread shipment declines across the industry, Fubon Research concludes that foldable smartphones — led by Apple’s entry — will be the only actual bright spot in the 2026 smartphone market.
The above content is compiled by ModeZone, a fashion and entertainment magazine.
